Visualization
Position Sizing Engine
"Kelly Criterion: Optimal growth through geometric averaging."
Strategy Parameters
Kelly Calculation
Optimal Kelly25.0%
Half Kelly12.5%
Edge37.5%
Strategy Comparison
Half Kelly (Conservative)
Median Return97719%
Ruin Rate0%
Full Kelly (Aggressive)
Median Return507555%
Ruin Rate0%
Expected log-growth as a function of bet size (Kelly fraction)
How it works
- • Kelly Criterion maximizes long-term geometric growth
- • Betting above Kelly increases variance without improving median outcome
- • Half-Kelly sacrifices some growth for much smoother equity curves
What this means for investors
Kekkei uses a fractional Kelly approach (typically 0.25-0.5x) adjusted for estimation uncertainty. We recognize that our edge estimates are imperfect, so we size conservatively. This protects against model error while still capturing most of the growth potential.