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Fat-Tail Risk Explorer

"Black Swans happen 10x more often than normal distributions predict."

Distribution Parameters

6
NormalVery Fat
3σ

Display

Tail Risk Comparison

Normal expects0.2700%
1 in 370 days
Reality shows0.594%
1 in 168 days
Underestimation2.2x
Normal Distribution
Fat-Tail Distribution
Tail Events

How it works

  • • Financial returns have heavier tails than normal distributions predict
  • • A 5σ move should happen once every 14,000 years under normal—it happens every few years
  • • VaR models using normal assumptions systematically underestimate extreme risk

What this means for investors

Kekkei's risk models explicitly account for fat tails using robust statistical methods. We don't rely on Gaussian assumptions for tail risk. Our position sizing and hedging strategies are designed to survive the "impossible" events that normal models ignore— because they're not actually impossible.